Minor Research project on
Risk predicting Models for Estimating the Probability of Developing of Breast Cancer
SUBHA R NAIR
Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics
Breast cancer is the second most common cause of cancer in women throughout the world most leading cause of cancer-related mortality. According to the Cancer registry published in 2012 by RCC, the occurrence of Breast Cancer in Kerala has shown an increase of about 58 % over the last 30 years.
Change in lifestyle, Industrialisation and westernised way of living can be attributed to this increase. A number of factors have been identified as triggers for Breast Cancer though an exact cause is yet to be pointed out. The fact that this disease is curable if detected early has led to the development of a number of Risk Prediction models in many western countries. These Statistical models predict the probability of developing Breast cancer at an early stage based on the factors influencing the development of the disease.
But none of these models can be applied to the Indian/ Kerala population as there is a large variation in the occurrence of Brest cancer based on geographical and cultural differences.
In this scenario, this project aims at developing a Risk Prediction model using data collected from the Regional Cancer Centre, Trivandrum so that an accurate prediction of the probability of developing Breast Cancer for the population of this country can be made possible.
The model has been developed using the techniques of Logistic Regression and a number of factors like Current age, Number of live births, Duration of Breast Feeding , Age at menarche, Age at Menopause, Use of Birth control Pills, Number of blood relations with Cancer etc are considered as the triggering factors.